June 26, 2017

Long-range hurricane season forecasts fall below-average

10 April 2017, 02:18 | Simon Arnold

Hurricane forecasters predict below-average storm season

Possible El Nino could mean a quieter hurricane season this year

The forecast also suggests a lower-than-normal chance of cyclones making landfall along the US coastline. Of those eleven, the forecast team is predicting four hurricanes, two of those major.

In a report, experts stated they anticipate a "below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall" this season, however, reminded residents to be prepared regardless. Tropical meteorologists at Colorado State University released their preseason hurricane outlook.

"It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season", said Michael Bell, associate professor in CSU's Department of Atmospheric Science.

The 2017 hurricane season won't officially begin until June 1 for the Atlantic, but researchers are already taking a look at how it could play out. While I do agree with the prospect of a slower hurricane season, do not see this as a decreased threat for Louisiana.

The team predicts that 2017 hurricane activity will be about 85 percent of the average season.

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Research Scientist Phil Klotzbach says, "the key thing with all of our seasonal forecasts is that it's an informational tool". Houston is part of that region, located along the the Atlantic basin's Gulf of Mexico.

Despite the uncertainties so far in advance, two to four tropical impacts are forecast for the United States. The forecast is calling for an average to slightly below average year. While tropical systems typically don't form over these waters, due to the overall circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, it has been observed that when these waters are cooler, overall tropical activity is less.

The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Arlene, followed by Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily, the National Hurricane Center said.

Here is a list of names that will be used for this Atlantic hurricane season. In early October, Hurricane Matthew dumped almost a foot of rain on coastal Georgia communities. Neither Colorado State nor AccuWeather made a prediction about the eastern Pacific season, but El Niños tend to increase activity in that basin.

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