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Demonetisation effect: economic growth seen slowing to 6.1% in December quarter
01 March 2017, 12:39 | Ignacio Smith
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Despite the president's rosy expectations, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said that, if enacted, the administration's economic program could push growth up to 3 percent but that it may take a year or two to see the improvements. Meanwhile, the CSO has also marginally revised upwards the GDP estimates for the first and the second quarters to 7.2% and 7.4%, respectively.
The third quarter number GDP numbers are an important indicator of how the economy reacted after demonetisation.
So these stand junked and India keeps the tag of fastest growing major economy in the world. The manufacturing sector also showed surprising results, as it grew by 8.3 per cent compared to 6.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
The government's hypothesis was validated Tuesday as the Central Statistics Office estimated the GDP growth for October-December quarter at 7%.
The government announced demonetisation or note ban of Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes on November 8 midnight to curb black money and terrorism and promote digital transactions.
Analysts' predictions were based on last three months macro level data which were suggesting squeezing consumption and stagnant or negative industrial output.
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"As of now, the data which is available has been captured in these estimates", Anant responded. NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya said: "I have been saying that the (demonetization) impact will not be large".
Overall, in gross value added (GVA) terms, growth declined to a six-quarter low of 6.6 per cent during the third quarter of this fiscal, from 6.7 per cent during the preceding quarter and 7.0 per cent during the corresponding quarter past year. On the currency crunch impacting growth in fourth quarter of this fiscal and subsequently, Panagariya said, "Currency shortages which have impacted the transaction would be addressed by the beginning of the fourth quarter". India, it said, "is expected to regain its momentum, with growth rising to 7.6% in [the financial year ending in March] 2018 and strengthening to 7.8% in FY2019-20".
"We expect pause on rates in the next 2-3 policies till September", said Ghosh of SBI.
The Finance Ministry's Economic Survey lowered economic growth to as low as 6.5% in 2016-17 from 7.9% in 2015-16. "Had the economy been weak, we could not have carried out this exercise successfully", he said.
The advance estimate of GDP growth was released a month before it is due to help the government prepare the budget, whose presentation was advanced by a month to 1 February.
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